Space technologies and innovations
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future.
– Arthur C. Clarke
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| Source: SpaceHouse/ESA |
We are in a period of unprecedented disruptive innovation in many segments of
modern society, and this is now quickly becoming the norm in many aspects of
the space sector. The traditional actors in space activities, i.e., large and well-funded national governmental agencies and major aerospace corporations, are
being confronted by a radical new set of ideas, approaches, and technologies,
and they are in many ways trying to adapt to these changes. There will be major new winners and losers, and it is
still too early to pick which is which. Even NewSpace ventures that fail, go
bankrupt, or are absorbed into other entities may still bring about important
changes and trigger important innovations that others will use. Some of the first
key space innovators, such as Teledesic, Iridium, Globalstar, and Orbcom, all went
through bankruptcy, from which some recovered and others did not. Yet all of these entities impacted the commercial space sector and brought key innovations to the fore.
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| Source: Google |
The cost of launch to orbit is being significantly reduced, opening up many new innovations through small satellites, cubesats, and large LEO constellations. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, among others, have upset the traditional launch market and have drastically reduced the price to orbit by creating re-useable launch systems. This trend will only continue and accelerate. They are creating the framework for an emerging space tourism market, or at least a space adventures market. Ultimately this process will send thousands of ordinary (if well- funded) people into space, a number that will dwarf the 500 or so astronauts that have flown during the early space agency missions. This trend in new launchers, which is driven by disruptive technologies, will only continue and even diversify. Currently there are a number of new very small launchers focusing on the smallsat and cubesat launch markets. Sir Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic enterprise have not only developed a space plane for space adventure flights, but this has evolved into his Launcher One enterprise that is now contractually committed to launch smallsats for the OneWeb constellation.
The smallsat revolution is rapidly altering the way people undertake space projects. This trend will continue and accelerate. Cubesat constellations are on the verge of replacing the traditional, large and expensive GEO satellites for many of the traditional satellite applications. This is especially true of remote sensing, where miniaturized sensors are able to accomplish many tasks, including hyperspectral sensing and now even active radar sensing. Small satellites are also making inroads into the telecommunications satellite business for network and rural connectivity markets.
The potential problem of space debris, which could result in an inability to access orbit, must be addressed in the near future. New advances in active debris mitigation, debris re-purposing, 3D printing, and reuse of satellites must continue. Smallsats and disruptive space technologies such as Electro-Dynamic Debris Eliminators (EDDE) may be crucial to that future. We must protect our access to orbit, and the issue of space debris must be addressed. The associated Space Situational Awareness capabilities must be developed and put into place.
Other types of outside-the-box thinking will be a part of our space future. These new initiatives, such as more use of hosted payloads, combined or clustered missions on a single small satellite, onboard data processing, as well as new high-altitude payload systems deployed in the stratosphere that begin to make more use of the protozone (subspace) will be a part of that future. Space traffic management to make space safer will also need to consider the transiting between national airspace and outer space. We will need space control systems for hypersonic transport via the stratosphere or protozone, so that space planes, HAPS, and UAVs, and stratospheric freighters and research stations do not collide in tragic accidents. Also, environmental concerns must be addressed with regard to the launchers and space planes that release solid particulates, so that they do not pollute the stratosphere, where Earth’s atmosphere is over a hundred times thinner than at sea level.
Space is precious real estate and has become an invisible but essential part of our modern world. We are rapidly polluting the useful orbital regions, especially LEO, and we face a real danger of polluting LEO to the point where we will not have access space. We must do a better job of protecting our access to space, reducing orbital pollution, mitigating space debris, and ensuring that access to space will be available to all in the future. This will require a balancing of the needs of all nations, and the recognition that investments in space are expensive and technology difficult to develop, yet the ‘commons of space’ need to be used to benefit all nations and all peoples.
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| Source: Google |
It will be the integration and synergy of all these that will create the new future of space. Each of these individually could have significant impact on our world and how we utilize space to benefit all nations and peoples of the world. It will be the cumulative and integrative whole that will create a radically different future, one significantly altered from the world we know. So many new technologies not directly related specifically to space, such as AI and big data, will combine with smallsats and cheaper access to space to drive many improved current applications, and will also create novel, new markets that don’t even exist today. The speed of the disruptive innovation cycle will continue to spin up at an ever-increasing rate. Companies representing new ideas and applications will be created, have their prime, and be subsumed by the next wave in increasingly rapid fashion. This will have a potentially radical impact on how space developers, investors, regulators, and individual consumers live and work. It will significantly impact jobs and employment as well.
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| Source: Zero-Gravity |
The benefits of space will also continue to spread more broadly around the world and have a real potential to make significant improvements in the lives of people on the planet who live in poverty and who do not currently have access to the benefits that we have in the developed world. These positive benefits can include access to communications, information, education, healthcare, and in better ways of farming, forestry, fishing, mining, and providing governmental services.
It is time for us to truly become Homo sapiens: the wise ones.
As always, thanks for reading;)
Reference:
Pelton, Joseph N. “Space 2.0: Revolutionary Advances in the Space Industry” (2019) Springer, Geneva, Switzerland
Friedman, T. L. (2016). Thank you for being late: An optimist’s guide to thriving in the age of accelerations (First edition.). New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
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